Gold Bulls Split With Buffett as Traders Say Sell

Hedge funds increased bets on a gold rally by the most in three weeks as central banks signaled no end to economic stimulus, driving prices higher just as analysts and traders turned the most bearish in three years.

The funds and other large speculators raised their net-long position by 19 percent to 54,762 futures and options as of April 30, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Holdings of so-called short contracts retreated 9.2 percent, the most since March 19. Net-bullish wagers across 18 U.S.-traded raw materials jumped 28 percent to 550,182, the biggest increase in seven weeks, led by gains in soybeans, cocoa and crude oil.

Gold rallied 4.9 percent in the past two weeks after entering a bear market April 12. The Federal Reserve raised the prospect of increasing its monthly bond buying on May 1 and the European Central Bank cut borrowing costs to a record low the next day. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said the metal has no appeal even after the slump, and a weekly Bloomberg survey of analysts and traders was the most bearish since February 2010.

Futures climbed 0.7 percent to $1,464.20 an ounce on the Comex last week. Prices rebounded 11 percent since reaching a two-year low on April 16. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities rose 1.4 percent last week, and the MSCI All- Country World of equities gained 1.7 percent. The dollar slid 0.5 percent against a basket of six major peers, and a Bank of America Corp. Index shows Treasuries fell 0.4 percent. Gold was 0.4 percent higher at $1,469.70 by 7:55 a.m. in Singapore today.

The Fed said at the end of a two-day policy meeting in Washington last week it’s “prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases” of $85 billion in debt a month. Gold surged 66 percent since the end of 2008 as the Fed was joined by central banks in Europe and Japan in printing unprecedented amounts of money, almost doubling sovereign debt to more than $23 trillion, a Bank of America index shows.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Dolar Mencetak Kenaikan Tertinggi Dalam 2 Minggu Versus Euro Sebelum US Jobs

Dolar mencetak kenaikan terbesar terhadap euro dalam dua minggu sebelum rilis data pekerjaan April AS setelah laporan sebelumnya mengecewakan dengan penambahan posisi paling sedikit dalam sembilan bulan.

Euro kemarin turun terhadap 15 dari 16 mata uang utama setelah Presiden Bank Sentral Eropa Mario Draghi mengatakan para pembuat kebijakan dapat mengambil langkah yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya pengisian bank untuk menahan kelebihan cadangan. 

"Data yang baru-baru melunak dan itu bisa muncul dalam non-farm payrolls," kata Richard Grace, yang berbasis di Sydney kepala strategi mata uang dan kepala ekonomi internasional di Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "Jika angkanya lemah, dolar AS akan turun sedikit karena imbal hasil obligasi jangka panjang."

Dolar diperdagangkan sedikit berubah pada $ 1,3070 pada 9:10 di Singapura setelah naik 0,9 persen kemarin, pengupas penurunan pekan ini menjadi 0,3 persen.

Mata uang AS diambil ¥ 98,01 dari 97,94 kemarin, 0,1 persen lebih lemah bahwa perusahaan April 26 tingkat. Euro 17 negara berada di ¥ 128,10 dari 127,95 dan 127,73 pada akhir pekan lalu.

Pasar Jepang ditutup hari ini dan pada tanggal 6 Mei untuk liburan.

Payrolls meningkat 140.000 pekerja setelah 88.000 keuntungan pada bulan Maret, menurut perkiraan median ekonom yang disurvei Bloomberg News sebelum laporan Departemen Tenaga Kerja. Tingkat pengangguran mungkin telah tinggal di 7,6 persen, pencocokan Maret membaca sebagai yang terendah sejak Desember 2008.

(Sumber: Bloomberg)

Gold ETP Holdings Cap Record Drop as $17.9 Billion Wiped Out

Gold holdings in exchange-traded products plunged 174 metric tons last month, the biggest drop ever, as prices entered a bear market and wiped $17.9 billion from the value of the funds.

Holdings in the ETPs slumped 7.1 percent in April to 2,275.84 tons, the lowest since October 2011, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The value of the assets dropped to $108.1 billion. Investors pulled $10.23 billion from gold funds in the first quarter, the most since at least 2000, when the data begins according to Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global.

The drop in ETP holdings underscores how some investors have lost faith in gold as the traditional store of value, even as central banks print money on an unprecedented scale to boost growth. While prices have rebounded since touching a two-year low on April 16, they fell 7.7 percent last month, the biggest loss since December 2011, as the stock market rallied and consumer costs remained stable.

“This is a capitulation by gold investors as equities were winning and there were no signs of inflation,” Tom Winmill, who helps manage $200 million of assets in Walpole, New Hampshire, for Midas Funds, said in a telephone interview. “Many have seen the reasons for holding gold fade.”

Gold futures for June delivery fell 0.5 percent to $1,465.40 an ounce today on the Comex in New York. Prices are down 13 percent this year, heading for the first decline after 12 straight years of gains. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities is up 8.8 percent in 2013, while the dollar climbed 2.1 percent against a basket of six major trading partners.

(Source: Bloomberg)