Euro Near Four-Month Low on Cyprus Contagion Concern, Yen Gains

The euro traded 0.2 percent from a four-month low versus the dollar on concern that future European bailouts could include the kind of bank deposit levies imposed on Cyprus.

The 17-nation currency headed for its biggest weekly decline in seven with Italian political parties still deadlocked ahead of a deadline today for forming a government. The yen gained against most of its major peers before Bank of Japan (8301) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda appears before upper house lawmakers ahead of a policy meeting next week.

“There is concern what’s happened in Cyprus is setting a precedent for what could potentially happen to deposit holders in other parts of the zone,” said Janu Chan, a Sydney-based economist at St. George Bank Ltd. “I suspect Italian politics could weigh on the euro.”

The euro was unchanged at $1.2780 as of 9:30 a.m. in Tokyo from yesterday, when it touched $1.2751, the lowest since Nov. 21. The shared currency was little changed at 120.69 yen, following a 0.6 percent drop yesterday. The yen traded at 94.42 per dollar from 94.46.

The euro has declined 1.6 percent against the greenback this week, the most since the five day’s ended Feb. 8, and 1.6 percent versus the yen. Japan’s currency is little changed against the dollar since March 22.

Financial markets will be closed tomorrow for a holiday in most of Europe, the U.S., and much of Asia.

(Source: Bloomberg)

CPM Memperkirakan Harga Rata-rata Tahunan Emas Bakal jatuh, Pertama Kali Sejak 2001

Harga emas rata-rata bisa jatuh tahun ini untuk pertama kalinya sejak 2001 setelah pergeseran mood investor  "jauh dari harapan yang ekstrim atas kolapsnya sistem keuangan global," kata CPM Group.

Logam tersebut  mungkin rata-rata berada pada  $ 1.565 per ounce pada tahun 2013, Jeffrey Christian, managing director CPM yang berbasis di New York, mengatakan dalam sebuah wawancara sebelum rilis "Gold Yearbook 2013." Emas turun 6,2 persen dari rata-rata spot $ 1,668.75 pada tahun 2012.

Kepemilikan pada produk yang diperdagangkan di bursa yang didukung oleh logam sebagai kemarin telah anjlok 177 metrik ton tahun ini, atau 6,7 persen, data yang dikumpulkan oleh Bloomberg menunjukkan. Miliarder George Soros memotong sahamnya di SPDR Gold Trust, ETP terbesar, sebesar 55 persen pada kuartal keempat.

Investor merasa bahwa "ekonomi global kemungkinan akan mengalami kekisruhan bersama," kata CPM dalam sebuah pernyataan. "Sentimen terkini  telah mengurangi urgensi" untuk menambah emas untuk portofolio setelah rata-rata harga naik ke rekor tahun lalu, kata perusahaan itu.

Kemarin, emas untuk pengiriman segera turun 0,2 persen menjadi $ 1,605.09. Harga telah turun 4,2 persen pada 2013. Logam membukukan keuntungan dalam 12 tahun sebelumnya. Komoditas tersebut melonjak ke rekor $ 1,921.15 pada bulan September 2011 sejalan dengan suku bunga global masih bertahan rendah, sementara AS, Eropa dan Jepang memperluas stimulus moneter.

Investor membeli 38,7 juta ons emas tahun lalu, turun 4,8 persen dari 2011, sementara bank sentral dan lembaga pemerintah meningkatkan kepemilikan sebesar 9,5 juta ons, kata CPM.

Pasokan refined  baru disempurnakan turun 0,6 persen menjadi 119 juta ons tahun lalu, sebagian karena tambang di Afrika Selatan yang terganggu oleh perselisihan perburuhan, kata CPM. Output akan meningkat pada tahun 2013, CPM mengatakan tanpa memberikan angka.

Permintaan fabrikasi naik 1,4 persen menjadi 70,8 juta ons pada 2012, didorong oleh penjualan perhiasan, kata CPM.

(Sumber: Bloomberg)

WTI Oil Trades Near Five-Week High, U.S. Stockpiles Seen Rising

West Texas Intermediate oil traded near the highest level in five weeks. U.S. crude inventories probably rose as domestic output stayed near the strongest in two decades, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Futures were little changed after advancing a second day yesterday. Crude stockpiles increased by 1.4 million barrels to 384.1 million last week, the highest since June, according to the median of seven analyst estimates before an Energy Information Administration report tomorrow. Domestic production was 7.15 million barrels a day in the prior week, just 9,000 barrels a day less than the 21-year high reached in the seven days ended March 8.

“The market’s been watching the U.S. reserves quite closely, which have been climbing somewhat, as domestic production has been coming on stream and demand has remained relatively flat,” said David Lennox, an analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney who predicts WTI will struggle to rise above $95 a barrel for the rest of this year. “Barring any supply shock events, we believe the topside will be somewhat limited.”

WTI for May delivery was at $94.72 a barrel, down 9 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:15 a.m. in Tokyo. The volume of all futures traded was 55 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day. The contract rose $1.10 to $94.81 yesterday, the highest close since Feb. 19. Prices have advanced 3.2 percent this year.

Brent oil for May settlement fell 17 cents to $108 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The volume of all futures traded was 65 percent below the 100-day average. Prices are down 2.8 percent in 2013. The European benchmark crude’s premium to WTI was at $13.28. It closed at $13.36 yesterday, the least since July.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Euro Advances as Cyprus Bailout Approved

The euro rose versus most of its major counterparts as finance ministers from the currency union approved a bailout plan for Cyprus, damping the risk of a default and a disorderly exit for the nation.

Euro-area finance ministers met in Brussels to consider the deal between Cyprus and the so-called troika of international creditors. 

“Assuming it is all signed off, markets aren’t likely to be fussed about the details,” Sean Callow, a Sydney-based senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC), said in reference to the deal. “Euro should make a run at $1.31 in a relief rally.”

The 17-nation currency climbed 0.3 percent to $1.3024 as of 10:13 a.m. in Tokyo. It rose 0.7 percent to 123.61 yen. Japan’s currency lost 0.5 percent to 94.93 per dollar.

Cyprus Parliament Speaker Yiannakis Omirou told reporters earlier in Nicosia that an agreement had been reached that would go to the euro group for approval.

The tentative deal would spare Cyprus bank deposits of less than 100,000 euros ($130,000) from a levy, and wind down Cyprus Popular Bank, an unidentified European Union official said. The European Central Bank set a deadline of today for a deal to be struck, threatening to cut off emergency funding to Cypriot banks.

The euro sank 0.7 percent against the dollar last week, the most since the period ended March 1, and tumbled 1.5 percent versus the yen as Cyprus talks coincided with data signaling the trading bloc’s economy is worsening.

(Source: Bloomberg)